Retrospective: predictions vs. reality

The platform predicts delay cascades and sellouts. This page scores those predictions against what actually happened — including the misses. A model you can't audit is a model you shouldn't trust. backtest

Cascade delay predictions

Vessel	Sailing	Basis	Predicted	Prob.	Actual dep. delay	Error

Sellout predictions

Sailing	Outcome	Warning lead	ETA error

Replay of the linear fill-rate rule over each sailing's booking curve: a "call" is the earliest moment the rule projected sellout before departure. Misses are only counted where the rule had ≥3 observations and a fair 90-minute head start.

Calls actually published that day archived live

Kind	Sailing	Made at	Prediction

Archived at the moment the intelligence engine first made each call (logging began 2026-07-18); earlier days show the replayed backtest only.